Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Croatia
  • Switzerland
  • Italy
  • US
  • United Kingdom
  • Sweden
  • Germany
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • San Marino
  • Chad
  • Cuba
  • Malaysia

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,483$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(677 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,236.8}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,236.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $107$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(27.1 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.7}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(105.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $227$ on 2020-06-25

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $31,428$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(65.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,557.0}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(30,557.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,958$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(561 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,916.4}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,916.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $470$ on 2020-06-25

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $239,706$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(6.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{232,693.6}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 43.1)}}\) (asimptote \(232,693.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,678$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(8.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,613.5}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(33,613.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,303$ on 2020-06-25

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,422,299$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.91 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,313,404.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 59.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,313,404.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $124,410$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.95 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117,809.2}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 49.4)}}\) (asimptote \(117,809.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,634,327$ on 2020-06-25

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $309,455$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(4.72 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{300,204.5}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.1)}}\) (asimptote \(300,204.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $43,314$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(8.15 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,171.0}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.4)}}\) (asimptote \(41,171.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $264,780$ on 2020-06-25

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $63,890$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(3.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,788.6}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 93.9)}}\) (asimptote \(82,788.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,230$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(802 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,053.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 49.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,053.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $58,660$ on 2020-06-25

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $193,371$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(5.67 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{181,713.7}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(181,713.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,940$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,645.8}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(8,645.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,667$ on 2020-06-25

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

San Marino recovered 99%
Chad recovered 96%
Cuba recovered 92%
Malaysia recovered 92%
Estonia recovered 91%
Malta recovered 91%
Djibouti recovered 87%
Italy recovered 83%
Lithuania recovered 78%
Turkey recovered 72%
Singapore recovered 71%
Sri Lanka recovered 58%
Hungary recovered 56%
Qatar recovered 52%
United Arab Emirates recovered 35%
Lebanon recovered 29%
Tajikistan recovered 28%
Belarus recovered 27%
Canada recovered 19%
Sierra Leone recovered 16%
Poland recovered 10%
Bahrain recovered 4%

San Marino⮸

Population $33,931$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $698$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(183 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{696.8}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(696.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(18.9 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(79.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41.5}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 24.6)}}\) (asimptote \(41.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3$ on 2020-06-25

Chad⮸

Population $16,425,864$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $863$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(156 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{864.5}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(864.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $74$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(28.2 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{71.2}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 14.7)}}\) (asimptote \(71.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15$ on 2020-06-25

Cuba⮸

Population $11,326,616$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,321$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(599 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,187.7}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,187.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $85$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(28 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83.6}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 28.0)}}\) (asimptote \(83.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $65$ on 2020-06-25

Malaysia⮸

Population $32,365,999$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,600$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.16 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,172.6}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 40.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,172.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(57.5 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(74.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{116.5}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 17.8)}}\) (asimptote \(116.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $208$ on 2020-06-25